U.S. Stock futures barely moved Thursday night after President Donald Trump confirmed Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire beginning at 5 p.m. ET, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures flat and Dow futures up 0.13%.
The truce announcement came after a day in which all three major U.S. Indexes posted gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new intraday and closing highs. The Dow rose 115 points, or 0.24%, even as the S&P 500 added 0.26% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.36%, extending weekly advances to 1.4%, 3.3%, and 5.2% respectively.
Oil prices reflected the mixed signals, with WTI crude futures falling 1.45% to $93.32 per barrel and Brent down 1.11% to $98.36, as traders weighed hopes of reduced Middle East supply disruptions against persistent tightness in global flows. InvestingLive noted WTI later rose $2.15 to $93.44 after intraday volatility, highlighting how Trump’s comments initially pushed oil above $97 before gains were halved.
Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year up 3.6 basis points to 4.315%, while the euro softened and the Canadian dollar outperformed amid shifting market dynamics. InvestingLive observed a retreat from pure “war-on/war-off” trading, noting currencies were increasingly pricing in economic fundamentals like strong Empire State and Philadelphia Fed data and falling jobless claims.
Tech stocks led the rally, with the Nasdaq marking its twelfth consecutive session of gains — one of its longest winning streaks ever — boosted by positive reactions to Trump’s remarks and a new Anthropic AI release. Intel, Cisco, and Texas Instruments stood out as performers, though Netflix fell over 9% after hours on weak guidance and the announcement that co-founder Reed Hastings would step down from its board in June.
Despite the optimism, Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab warned the market’s rebound lacked breadth, saying the recent surge to all-time highs over just 11 days needed broader participation to signal durability. She urged investors to avoid big bets, diversify across asset classes, and use volatility to rebalance rather than chase momentum.
For more on this story, see Stock Futures Steady as Markets Monitor U.S.-Iran Ceasefire.
The State Department framed the ceasefire as a step toward lasting peace, citing goals of mutual recognition of sovereignty, improved border security, and Israel’s right to self-defense, while expressing concern over non-state armed groups threatening Lebanon’s stability. Trump said he expected Lebanon to “accept care of Hezbollah,” the Iran-backed militia, and suggested White House talks between Netanyahu and Aoun could follow “probably, maybe, next weekend.”
ING analysts cautioned that while oil prices dipped on ceasefire hopes, physical supply remained constrained, estimating 13 million barrels per day of disruption — a figure that could worsen under a U.S. Blockade. They warned the key upside risk to markets was a breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks, given the wide gap between the two sides’ demands.
How the ceasefire influenced oil prices despite supply tightness
Oil prices initially fell on ceasefire hopes but later fluctuated as traders balanced optimism about reduced geopolitical risk with evidence of ongoing physical bottlenecks, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, where flows remain disrupted despite rerouting efforts.
This follows our earlier report, US Stock Futures Flat as S&P 500 Nears All-Time High.
Why tech stocks led the market advance
Strong earnings expectations, positive reactions to Trump’s Middle East comments, and a new Anthropic AI release drove gains in semiconductor and software stocks, with Intel, Cisco, and Texas Instruments among the standouts, extending the Nasdaq’s winning streak.
What does the ceasefire imply for oil markets?
The ceasefire raised hopes of easing supply disruptions from the Israel-Lebanon border, but analysts note physical oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained, with ING estimating 13 million barrels per day of disruption that could worsen under a blockade.
Should investors trust the current stock market rally?
Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab cautioned that while markets hit new highs, the advance lacks broad participation, suggesting investors avoid large bets, diversify, and use volatility to rebalance rather than chase momentum.
