On the surface, the latest data on food prices suggests a moment of stability. In April, prices remained largely flat, showing a slower rate of increase compared to the previous month. But for anyone actually walking the aisles of a supermarket, that headline feels disconnected from the reality of the checkout counter.
The truth is that food price trends are not moving in a single direction. While a few select items have become significantly cheaper over the last decade, the vast majority of the grocery basket has climbed steeply. The stability reported in the aggregate is actually the result of a volatile tug-of-war between plummeting prices for some produce and staggering increases for staples like eggs and butter.
According to data from Stats NZ, which tracks 147 detailed food prices, the “wins” for consumers are rare. Only seven of those items have recorded a price drop over the last ten years. The most notable among them is the avocado, which has seen a 22 percent decrease in price over the decade.
The Avocado Paradox and Rare Bargains
The decline in avocado prices is a study in supply and demand. Brad Olsen, chief economist at Infometrics, notes that a surge in supply coupled with cooling demand has driven prices down. This shift effectively dismantles the long-standing trope that “avocado toast” is a primary barrier to homeownership for younger generations.
“Anyone saying ‘your avocado on toast is contributing to your inability to buy a house’ was wrong to start with,” Olsen said, noting that the argument is even less tenable now that prices have retreated.
Beyond avocados, a few other items have bucked the inflationary trend over the long term. Onions have dropped 7 percent, falling from an average of $2.13 per kilogram to $1.99. Smaller decreases were seen in 700g bags of frozen prawns (down 3 percent) and packaged pasta-and-sauce meals (down 1 percent).
In the shorter term, the past year has provided some relief in the produce section. Consumers saw the sharpest annual drops in cucumbers (down 23 percent), olive oil (down 21 percent), packaged pasta meals (down 16 percent), carrots (down 14 percent), and cauliflower (down 11 percent).
Structural Shifts in the Grocery Basket
While a handful of items have dipped, the rest of the basket has surged, often due to fundamental changes in how food is produced or consumed. The most dramatic example is eggs, which have soared 151 percent over the last decade. This isn’t merely inflation; it is a reflection of a systemic shift in New Zealand’s agricultural policy, moving away from battery and caged options toward more expensive free-range production.
Butter has followed a similar trajectory, rising 143 percent over ten years. Matt Dilly, an economist at ANZ, explains that this is partly due to a “step change” in consumer behavior. As health preferences shifted away from vegetable oils and back toward butter, demand spiked. While global supplies were tight from mid-2024 to late 2025 due to poor weather in most exporting nations, New Zealand’s own increased production is starting to bring prices down slightly from their peak.
Global volatility also plays a massive role in the cost of imported goods. Sultanas, for instance, have jumped 116 percent. Much of this is attributed to severe weather—specifically rain and frost damage—in Turkey, the world’s largest producer. Michael Gordon, a senior economist at Westpac, noted that these poor harvests have created similar price pressures for coffee and chocolate.
Other significant ten-year increases include:
- Canned pink salmon: Up 101 percent
- Kiwifruit: Up 93 percent
- Bread: Up 90 percent
- Corned beef: Up 87 percent
- Cabbage: Up 78 percent
The cost of a standard serve of fish and chips provides a visceral example of this cumulative inflation. In the year ending April 2016, a serve averaged $6.09; today, that price has climbed to $10.77. This increase is driven by a combination of rising fish fillet costs, more expensive cooking oil, higher energy bills, and increases to the minimum wage affecting the hospitality sector.
Managing the Monthly Budget
With the cost of living remaining a primary concern, some economists are suggesting tactical swaps to mitigate the impact of these food price trends. Shamubeel Eaqub, chief economist at Simplicity, suggests that tiny changes in school lunches—such as swapping ham for peanut butter and muesli bars for bulk muesli—can save families approximately $5.10 per week.
The difference is even more pronounced in dinner choices. Eaqub calculated that a Sunday roast for four people costs roughly $22.24 per person when using beef sirloin, but drops to just $8.17 when using roast chicken.
The Lag Effect: What Comes Next
The current “flat” pricing seen in April may be a deceptive lull. Economists are warning of a “lag effect” regarding fuel and fertilizer costs. Diesel costs have nearly doubled in the last two months, but these expenses typically take three to six months to filter through the supply chain to the retail shelf.
Satish Ranchhod, a senior economist at Westpac, suggests that the impact of higher production costs and shipping delays may not be fully realized until the latter part of the year. While the April figures were softer than expected, the underlying pressure from fuel and fertilizer is expected to push prices upward in the coming months.
| Item | 10-Year Trend | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Eggs | +151% | Shift to free-range production |
| Butter | +143% | Health preference shift / Supply tights |
| Sultanas | +116% | Turkish crop weather damage |
| Avocados | -22% | Increased supply / Lower demand |
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
The next major indicator of food price movement will be the upcoming quarterly inflation data from Stats NZ, which will reveal whether the rising cost of diesel has finally reached the consumer level.
Do you feel the “flat” prices in your local store, or are you seeing something different? Share your experience in the comments below.
