Portugal is facing a precarious window of energy security as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatens the primary artery of its aviation fuel supply. A recent analysis suggests the country could exhaust its jet fuel stocks within four months if it fails to secure alternative suppliers to replace shipments currently blocked by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The vulnerability is rooted in a systemic reliance on the Persian Gulf, from which more than 60% of jet fuel imports originate. This is not merely a Portuguese crisis but a continental one; approximately 50% of all aviation fuel consumed across Europe is sourced from the Gulf region. Since the onset of hostilities and the subsequent restriction of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, fuel prices have more than doubled, placing immense pressure on carriers and national economies.
For Portugal, the stakes are particularly high due to the intersection of energy fragility and economic dependence. Aviation is the lifeblood of the nation’s tourism sector, which accounted for 12% of the country’s wealth production in 2024, contributing roughly €34 billion to the economy. With national airports handling over 73 million passengers—a 5% increase over the previous year—any disruption in fuel availability could trigger a cascading economic downturn.
The Sines Dependency and the Import Gap
Portugal’s fuel landscape is characterized by a heavy reliance on a single point of failure: the Galp refinery in Sines. Currently, 75% of the jet fuel consumed within the country is produced at this sole national facility. While this provides a buffer, the remaining 25% must be imported to meet total demand.
According to data from the Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia (DGEG), Portugal consumed over 1.87 million tonnes of oil equivalent (TEP) of jet fuel in 2024, importing 475,000 TEP to fill the gap. The diversity of these imports is deceptive; while countries like South Korea and China provide significant volumes, the highest concentrations remain in the volatile Gulf region.
| Country | Volume (Tonnes) | Region |
|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 241,000 | Persian Gulf |
| South Korea | 112,000 | East Asia |
| China | 62,000 | East Asia |
| Saudi Arabia | 47,000 | Persian Gulf |
The timing of this crisis is particularly acute. Imports typically ramp up in mid-May to prepare for the summer travel surge. However, scheduled maintenance at the Sines refinery creates a seasonal dip in domestic production, leaving the country almost entirely dependent on foreign shipments during the spring. If the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted through May, Argus warns that stocks could plummet rapidly.
A European Pattern of Vulnerability
Portugal is not alone in its exposure. The United Kingdom and Denmark are identified as being similarly at risk, particularly vulnerable to the effective closure of the Hormuz chokepoint. The broader issue is a structural decline in refining capacity across Western Europe, which has forced many nations to outsource their fuel needs to the Middle East.
In Italy, the impact has already manifested in operational warnings. BP has issued a “notice to airmen,” alerting airlines to potential fuel restrictions at airports in Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso, and Venice. While these restrictions currently affect only BP’s direct clients and other suppliers remain active, the move signals a tightening market.
The risk profile varies significantly across the continent based on domestic production and storage depth. Countries such as Poland and Greece, where national production meets or exceeds consumption, are better shielded. Similarly, Ireland’s deep strategic reserves provide a more robust cushion against Middle Eastern disruptions.
Estimated Stock Coverage by Country
- Portugal and Hungary: Approximately 4 months of coverage.
- Denmark: Approximately 6 months of coverage.
- Italy and Germany: Approximately 7 months of coverage.
- France and Ireland: Approximately 8 months of coverage.
Industry Warnings and Economic Risks
The aviation industry is already sounding the alarm. Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, recently warned that the risk of fuel shortages in Europe becomes critical in May and June if the conflict persists. In an interview with Sky News, O’Leary estimated that between 10% and 25% of the airline’s supplies could be at risk during the early summer window.
The volatility is not just about availability, but cost. The doubling of prices since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is already being felt in ticket prices and operational overheads. For a country like Portugal, where tourism is a strategic economic pillar, the threat of “localized shortages” or “abrupt price shifts” could deter the very passenger traffic that drives its GDP.
While the Argus analysis suggests that no European country is likely to run completely dry—given that domestic production continues and some reserves exist—the transition to “uncomfortably low” levels could lead to erratic pricing and supply instability at key hubs.
The immediate focus for Portuguese energy authorities now rests on the mid-May import window. The ability of the government and private suppliers to pivot toward non-Gulf sources before the summer peak will determine whether the aviation sector faces a manageable pinch or a systemic crisis.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice regarding energy markets.
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