Turkish Polls Indicate Tight Race, CHP Gains Ground Ahead of Potential 2025 Elections
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A new survey suggests a highly competitive political landscape in Türkiye, with the CHP emerging as the leading party when excluding non-voters. The findings, released by MAK Consultancy following a face-to-face study conducted in December 2025 with 3,200 citizens across 44 provinces, reveal a significant level of voter indecision and a potential shift in the country’s political dynamics.
Significant Number of Undecided and Protest Voters
The research highlights a substantial portion of the electorate – 24% – expressing a reluctance to participate in upcoming elections. This includes individuals who stated they do not intend to vote, those who would cast a protest vote, and those who are simply undecided. Importantly, the survey results reflect the preferences of those who do intend to vote, offering a snapshot of committed voters.
CHP Leads Among Likely Voters
When factoring out those unlikely to vote, the CHP takes the lead with 31.4% support. This represents a notable gain for the party and signals a potential challenge to the current political order. A senior official stated that this shift underscores the growing dissatisfaction with the status quo among a segment of the Turkish population.
Five Parties Poised to Cross the Electoral Threshold
Despite the presence of 14 parties currently represented in the Turkish Grand National Assembly due to existing electoral alliances, the survey indicates that only five parties would likely surpass the electoral threshold if elections were held without such alliances.
Here’s a breakdown of the support for each party among likely voters:
- AKP: 31%
- CHP: 31.4%
- İYİ Party: 7.2%
- DEM: 7.2%
- MHP: 7%
- YRP: 4.1%
- Victory Party: 2.1%
- Party A: 1.2%
- Happiness Party: 1.1%
- DEVA: 1%
- BTP: 1%
- Others: 1.2%
- Undecided/No Answer: 4.5%
Implications for Future Alliances
The data suggests that the current system of alliances is crucial for maintaining representation for a wider range of political viewpoints. Without these coalitions, several parties currently holding seats in Parliament risk being excluded. One analyst noted that the close race between the AKP and CHP could lead to intensified negotiations and strategic maneuvering as the country approaches the next election cycle.
The findings from MAK Consultancy provide a valuable insight into the evolving political preferences of Turkish voters, highlighting the importance of voter engagement and the potential for significant shifts in the political landscape.
