Indonesia’s strategic pivot under President Prabowo Subianto has sparked a debate among the nation’s diplomatic elite regarding the balance between global ambition and regional responsibility. Dino Patti Djalal, a former Indonesian ambassador to the United States, has urged the president to place ASEAN first over Middle East diplomacy, suggesting that the current administration’s focus has drifted too far from its “backyard” in Southeast Asia.
The critique centers on a perceived departure from Indonesia’s long-standing diplomatic tradition, which typically prioritizes regional stability within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) before expanding into global power politics. Djalal argues that while the desire for a larger international footprint is understandable, neglecting regional leadership could undermine Indonesia’s credibility and influence on the world stage.
In a series of observations titled “3 Reality Check for President Prabowo’s Diplomacy,” Djalal pointed to the president’s travel itinerary as primary evidence of this shift. According to Djalal, Prabowo’s initial overseas visits following his inauguration focused on global capitals—including China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Peru, Brazil, the Emirates, and Egypt—rather than the neighboring capitals of Southeast Asia.
A Divergence in Diplomatic Tradition
The scale of this shift is reflected in the numbers. Djalal noted that over a period of 18 months, Prabowo conducted 49 foreign visits, but only four of those were to ASEAN member states: Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, and Singapore. This disparity suggests a strategic preference for the Middle East and Europe over the immediate regional neighborhood.
Of particular concern to Djalal is the absence of a visit to Timor-Leste. Given the deep political and historical ties between Jakarta and Dili, such a visit is often viewed as a cornerstone of Indonesian regional diplomacy. The fact that this trip has yet to materialize is seen by some as a signal of the administration’s current priorities.
| Region | Visit Frequency/Status | Key Destinations Mentioned |
|---|---|---|
| ASEAN | 4 out of 49 visits | Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, Singapore |
| Global/Intercontinental | High Frequency | USA, China, UK, Brazil, Peru, Egypt, UAE |
| Timor-Leste | Pending | N/A |
The Risk of Regional Indifference
The implications of this shift extend beyond travel logs. Djalal argues that Indonesia’s reduced engagement has left a vacuum in the management of critical regional crises. Specifically, he pointed to the ongoing volatility in ASEAN member states, including the protracted crisis in Myanmar and simmering tensions between Thailand and Cambodia.
We find concerns regarding the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). This framework, which was an Indonesian initiative designed to ensure regional autonomy amidst the rivalry between the U.S. And China, has reportedly seen a reduction in prominence within Prabowo’s diplomatic agenda. Djalal warns that if regional partners perceive Indonesia as indifferent, the country’s reputation as a natural leader of Southeast Asia could be permanently damaged.
The core of the argument is one of leverage. Djalal posits that while Indonesia has limited capacity to dictate outcomes in high-stakes geopolitical conflicts—such as those involving Iran, Israel, and the United States—it possesses significant power to shape the dynamics of Southeast Asia. By prioritizing the regional stage, Jakarta can ensure that ASEAN remains a united bloc capable of resisting external intervention.
The Path Toward Recalibration
For Indonesia to reclaim its role as the “engine” of regional resilience, Djalal suggests several concrete steps. He believes Indonesia should lead the charge in advancing negotiations for a South China Sea code of conduct to prevent escalation and ensure maritime stability. He calls for a more robust approach to the Myanmar crisis and a strengthening of the ASEAN Secretariat to make the organization more responsive to the needs of its citizens.
A critical juncture in this recalibration is the upcoming ASEAN high-level conference in Cebu, scheduled for May. Djalal views this event as a pivotal opportunity for President Prabowo to signal that Indonesia is “back in ASEAN” and committed to its regional leadership.
The stakes are further heightened by the fact that the next ASEAN Secretary-General is expected to come from Indonesia. Djalal emphasizes that the nominee must be a strong, independent figure dedicated to the collective interests of the bloc, rather than a political appointee acting as a subordinate to the presidency.
What This Means for Regional Stability
The debate over Prabowo’s diplomacy reflects a broader tension in Indonesian foreign policy: the desire to be a “global player” versus the necessity of being a “regional anchor.” If Indonesia continues to prioritize distant diplomacy over its immediate neighbors, it risks losing the very regional cohesion that gives it leverage in the West and East.
By shifting from acting as the “tiger” of the region—a dominant force—to acting as the “engine”—a catalyst for collective strength—Indonesia could potentially stabilize the region against the backdrop of an increasingly chaotic global landscape.
The next significant milestone for the administration’s regional strategy will be the high-level conference in Cebu this May, where the president’s engagement level and policy proposals will serve as a litmus test for his commitment to the ASEAN-first approach.
We invite our readers to share their perspectives on Indonesia’s evolving role in Southeast Asia in the comments below.
