SAN FRANCISCO — California Democrats are grappling with a growing fear that a crowded gubernatorial primary could lead to a stunning upset in November, potentially opening the door for a Republican to win the state’s highest office for the first time in nearly two decades. With nine Democrats vying to replace outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom, concerns are mounting that the party’s vote will be splintered, allowing two Republican candidates to advance to the general election under California’s unique “jungle primary” system.
The possibility of a Republican runoff is prompting urgent discussions within the party, with leaders privately urging lower-polling Democratic candidates to consider withdrawing from the race to consolidate support behind a single contender. The stakes are high, as a Republican governor could significantly alter the state’s progressive policies and potentially impact federal funding streams, particularly in areas like reproductive healthcare.
“California Democrats are prepared to do what’s required,” state party chairman Rusty Hicks told reporters at the California Democratic Party’s annual convention on Friday. “We are ready and willing and able to do what’s required … to ensure we have a strong candidate coming out of the primary to do what’s required in November.” The urgency stems from the fact that California’s primary system allows the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party affiliation, to proceed to the general election.
A Crowded Democratic Field and Republican Momentum
Nine Democrats are currently competing for the governorship, including Rep. Eric Swalwell of Dublin, who, according to an average of recent polls compiled by Real Clear Politics, currently leads the Democratic field with 12.5% of the vote. Other prominent contenders include state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon. The large number of candidates vying for the Democratic nomination raises the specter of a divided electorate, potentially allowing the two Republican candidates to secure the top two spots in the June primary.
Currently, conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco are tied for first place among Republican candidates, each with 15.5% support, according to the same Real Clear Politics average. This relatively strong showing for the Republican candidates has heightened anxieties within the Democratic party, particularly given California’s history of Democratic dominance in statewide elections – no Republican has held statewide office since 2006.
Echoes of Past Primary Splits
The current situation is drawing comparisons to the 2012 congressional race in San Bernardino County, where a fractured Democratic field allowed Republican Gary Miller to win despite a voter registration advantage for Democrats. Pete Aguilar, a Democrat who lost in that primary, ultimately won the seat in 2014 and has served in Congress ever since. This historical example underscores the potential consequences of a divided Democratic electorate in a “jungle primary” system.
Calls for Unity and Consolidation
Despite the concerns, some prominent Democrats are attempting to project confidence. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) dismissed the possibility of a Republican sweep in the gubernatorial race, stating, “That’s not going to happen,” and emphasizing the party’s unity. However, behind the scenes, a growing chorus of voices is calling for a consolidation of the Democratic field.
Jodi Hicks, leader of Planned Parenthood’s California operations, expressed the potential devastation of having two Republican candidates in the general election, particularly given the ongoing efforts to protect reproductive healthcare access in the state. Lorena Gonzalez, the leader of the California Federation of Labor Unions, indicated that the organization’s endorsement process, beginning Tuesday, will involve “honest discussions” with candidates about their viability and paths to victory.
Internal Pressure and Candidate Responses
The pressure to withdraw from the race is already being felt by some candidates. Ian Calderon revealed that Rep. Eric Swalwell had urged him to drop out, though Swalwell later denied specifically asking Calderon to exit the race. Betty Yee, a former state party vice chair, has faced calls to exit the race, with RL Miller, chair of the state Democratic Party’s environmental caucus, suggesting she is not serving the party by remaining in the contest. Yee forcefully rejected these calls, stating that pressure to drop out “would just be undemocratic” and asserting that the race remains “wide open.”
The situation is fluid, and the coming weeks are likely to see further behind-the-scenes maneuvering as the Democratic party attempts to navigate this challenging primary. The outcome of the June primary will have significant implications for the future of California politics and the state’s policy direction.
Looking Ahead
The California Democratic Party’s endorsement process and the candidates’ individual fundraising efforts will be key indicators of the race’s trajectory in the coming months. The deadline to qualify for the ballot is fast approaching, and the field is expected to narrow as candidates assess their chances and resources. The next major checkpoint will be the release of updated polling data in early March, which will provide a clearer picture of voter preferences and the viability of each candidate.
This developing story will continue to be updated as latest information becomes available. Share your thoughts on the California gubernatorial race in the comments below.
