The AFL trade machine is already humming and We see only May. While the season is barely halfway through, the landscape of the league is shifting behind the scenes as rival clubs circle established stars, veterans contemplate their final acts, and a new generation of talent weighs up their long-term commitments.
In the modern era of the league, the traditional waiting period for the trade window has effectively vanished. We are now operating in a cycle of constant movement, where the AFL trade and contract state of play is dictated as much by personal circumstances and salary cap pressures as it is by on-field performance.
At the center of the current storm are the restricted free agents, specifically Port Adelaide’s Zak Butters and Brisbane’s Zac Bailey. These two names represent the highest-value assets on the market, capable of shifting the power balance of their respective midfields. While Port Adelaide is expected to match any bid for Butters, the Western Bulldogs and Geelong are currently viewed as the primary suitors, with the Bulldogs holding a slight edge in the race.
Simultaneously, the looming entry of the Tasmania Devils is creating a distinct ripple effect. From young guns like Finn O’Sullivan at North Melbourne and Sam Lalor at Richmond to established stars like Logan Morris, the “Apple Isle” is no longer a theoretical threat but a tangible recruiting force that clubs are already scrambling to mitigate.
The High-Stakes Pursuit of Restricted Free Agents
The pursuit of Zak Butters has become the defining narrative of the early 2026 trade cycle. Reports suggest the midfielder could command offers in the region of $2 million per year, with some deals potentially stretching toward a decade in length. While Richmond has expressed a vocal desire to stay in the race, they remain long shots compared to the Bulldogs and Cats.
For the Western Bulldogs, securing Butters would create a frightening midfield core alongside Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards. However, such an acquisition may require the Bulldogs to consider parting with contracted capital, as Port Adelaide retains the right to match offers for their star.
Across the country, Zac Bailey is attracting similar attention. The Brisbane Lions’ midfielder-forward is a restricted free agent with strong ties to South Australia, having attended school in Adelaide. This has positioned the Adelaide Crows as early frontrunners for his services, though any deal would likely require a significant financial commitment from West Lakes.
Top Trade Watches for 2026
| Player | Current Club | Primary Interest/Links | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | Port Adelaide | Western Bulldogs, Geelong | Restricted Free Agent | |
| Zac Bailey | Brisbane Lions | Adelaide Crows, Port Adelaide | Restricted Free Agent | |
| Lachie Neale | Brisbane Lions | West Coast Eagles | Out of Contract | |
| Nathan Broad | Richmond | West Coast, Fremantle | Unrestricted Free Agent | |
| Toby Greene | GWS Giants | Geelong, Victorian Clubs | Out of Contract |
The Western Migration and the Tasmanian Lure
A significant trend this season is the movement of talent toward the west coast. Nathan Broad has indicated that 2026 will be his final season at Richmond, making him a prime target for both West Coast and Fremantle as he seeks a homecoming to Western Australia.
Similarly, two-time Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale is facing a crossroads. With children residing in Perth, the 32-year-old has been linked to the West Coast Eagles. While his former club, Fremantle, remains a possibility, the Eagles are currently viewed as the more likely destination should he depart the Lions.
While the west coast attracts veterans, Tasmania is targeting the future. The Devils are reportedly eyeing a “package” of young talent, with specific interest in North Melbourne’s Finn O’Sullivan and Richmond’s Sam Lalor. For North Melbourne, the priority remains locking down 21-year-old George Wardlaw, though the club must remain vigilant against the Tasmanian lure as extension talks begin.
List Squeezes and Veteran Crossroads
Beyond the superstars, several clubs are managing complex list squeezes. Carlton finds itself with a significant number of players out of contract, including key pillars like Patrick Cripps and Jacob Weitering, who have been flagged in media discussions as potential options, though most remain likely to stay. The Blues are instead focusing their recruiting efforts on Sydney free agent Joel Amartey and potentially Gold Coast’s Jed Walter.
At the other end of the spectrum, the league is preparing for the departure of several icons. Taylor Walker is widely expected to retire after his 19th season, while Patrick Dangerfield remains an unrestricted free agent at Geelong. The Cats are also monitoring the situation of Rowan Marshall, who remains a trade target despite being contracted at St Kilda until 2027.
In the ruck department, movement is also expected. Essendon is keeping a close watch on Adelaide’s Reilly O’Brien, while Richmond is intently pursuing GWS youngster Nick Madden to bolster their followers.
For the Gold Coast Suns, the priority is stability. While Ben King has been linked to Collingwood, current indications suggest he will sign a short-term extension at Carrara. This stability may, however, push other players like Jed Walter to look elsewhere, with Carlton and West Coast already showing interest in the 20-year-old.
As the competition moves toward the midpoint of the season, the next critical checkpoint will be the second half of the year, when many players—including St Kilda’s Darcy Wilson and North Melbourne’s George Wardlaw—are expected to formally enter contract negotiations. These discussions will determine whether the current rumors materialize into official moves during the trade period.
We invite you to share your thoughts on the current trade landscape in the comments below. Which club do you believe is best positioned to land a superstar this off-season?
